NHL Advanced Stats — GAR, WAR, Expected Goals
Hockey Alchemy is an advanced NHL analytics platform: Goals Above Replacement (GAR), Wins Above Replacement (WAR), expected goals (xG), RAPM, Elo-based power rankings, Stanley Cup odds, and prospect pipeline coverage for the 2025-26 season.
Top Skaters by GAR — 2025-26
| # | Player | Team | Pos | GAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor McDavid | EDM | C | 41.3 |
| 2 | Nathan MacKinnon | COL | C | 38.0 |
| 3 | Nikita Kucherov | TBL | RW | 34.8 |
| 4 | Jason Robertson | DAL | LW | 32.7 |
| 5 | Cole Caufield | MTL | LW | 32.6 |
| 6 | Macklin Celebrini | SJS | C | 31.6 |
| 7 | Jack Eichel | VGK | C | 28.7 |
| 8 | Mark Scheifele | WPG | C | 27.8 |
| 9 | Martin Necas | COL | RW | 26.1 |
| 10 | Kyle Connor | WPG | LW | 25.7 |
| 11 | Leon Draisaitl | EDM | C | 25.0 |
| 12 | Quinn Hughes | MIN | LD | 24.8 |
| 13 | Dylan Guenther | UTA | RW | 24.7 |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | NJD | C | 24.0 |
| 15 | Drake Batherson | OTT | RW | 24.0 |
| 16 | Clayton Keller | UTA | LW | 23.5 |
| 17 | Tage Thompson | BUF | RW | 23.3 |
| 18 | Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | LW | 23.0 |
| 19 | Evan Bouchard | EDM | RD | 22.9 |
| 20 | Artemi Panarin | LAK | LW | 22.4 |
Top Goalies by GSAx — 2025-26
| # | Goalie | Team | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Swayman | BOS | 45.1 |
| 2 | Ilya Sorokin | NYI | 39.7 |
| 3 | Logan Thompson | WSH | 34.2 |
| 4 | Jakub Dobes | MTL | 31.0 |
| 5 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 26.9 |
NHL Teams
Eastern Conference
Western Conference
Recent Analysis — The Lab
How We Calculate NHL Power Rankings: The Elo System Behind Hockey Alchemy
A transparent look at the Elo rating system that powers our NHL power rankings, game predictions, and Stanley Cup odds. K=12, home ice = 50 points, 30% regression to the mean — and three different ways we account for margin of victory.
How Predictive Is Our GAR Model? A Comparison Across Three Metrics
Benchmarking Hockey Alchemy's GAR against Evolving Hockey and HockeyStats / TopDownHockey across standings R², year-over-year repeatability, and player-rank agreement. Across 16 seasons we lead on standings prediction and YoY stability — and intentionally diverge on individual rankings.