The Lab — Hockey Alchemy Blog

Methodology breakdowns, model validations, and analytical deep-dives from the Hockey Alchemy team. New posts every few weeks.

How We Calculate NHL Power Rankings: The Elo System Behind Hockey Alchemy

2026-05-23

A transparent look at the Elo rating system that powers our NHL power rankings, game predictions, and Stanley Cup odds. K=12, home ice = 50 points, 30% regression to the mean — and three different ways we account for margin of victory.

How Predictive Is Our GAR Model? A Comparison Across Three Metrics

2026-05-09

Benchmarking Hockey Alchemy's GAR against Evolving Hockey and HockeyStats / TopDownHockey across standings R², year-over-year repeatability, and player-rank agreement. Across 16 seasons we lead on standings prediction and YoY stability — and intentionally diverge on individual rankings.