About Hockey Alchemy
Hockey Alchemy is an independent NHL analytics site publishing GAR, WAR, expected goals, RAPM, power rankings and playoff odds from public NHL data, with its methods and model tests published openly.
Who runs it
Hockey Alchemy was founded in 2025 and is built and run by Jared Randall, who writes the blog and builds the models behind it.
What we publish
- Goals Above Replacement (GAR): a skater's value in goals over a replacement-level player.
- Wins Above Replacement (WAR): GAR converted to wins at 5.57 goals per win.
- Expected goals (xG): the chance an unblocked shot becomes a goal.
- RAPM: on-ice impact adjusted for teammates and opponents.
- GSAx: goalie value against shot quality.
- Power rankings: an Elo rating updated after every game.
- Playoff odds: a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season.
Data and methods
Every figure is computed from public NHL play-by-play, shift, box-score and roster data, ingested after each game. How each model is built is documented on the methodology page, and the models are tested in public: How good is our WAR model? reports four tests against public alternatives, two of them lost. Why public hockey analytics is imperfect sets out what public data cannot show.
Independence
Hockey Alchemy is independent. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the National Hockey League or any club, and its metrics are model estimates, not official league statistics.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Hockey Alchemy?
Hockey Alchemy is an independent NHL analytics site. It publishes advanced player and team metrics -- Goals Above Replacement (GAR), Wins Above Replacement (WAR), expected goals (xG), RAPM, goalie GSAx, Elo power rankings and playoff odds -- computed from public NHL data, with the methodology published openly.
Where does Hockey Alchemy's data come from?
Public NHL data: play-by-play events, shift charts, box scores and rosters. Hockey Alchemy's own models turn that into GAR, WAR, xG, RAPM and the other metrics. Nothing on the site is an official NHL statistic.
How often is the data updated?
Game data is ingested after every game, and player, team, standings and playoff-odds pages update daily during the season.
How accurate are Hockey Alchemy's models?
The models are tested against out-of-sample results and against public alternatives, and the results are published whether they flatter the model or not -- including the tests it lost.
Is Hockey Alchemy affiliated with the NHL?
No. Hockey Alchemy is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the National Hockey League or any club.