Goals Above Replacement (GAR)
A comprehensive metric that estimates how many goals a player contributes above what a replacement-level player would provide in the same playing time.
Goals Above Replacement (GAR) is the flagship all-in-one metric in modern hockey analytics. It answers a deceptively simple question: how many goals is this player worth compared to a freely available minor-league call-up? GAR rolls offensive production, defensive impact, special teams play, and penalty behaviour into a single number, making it possible to compare a shutdown defenseman to a goal-scoring winger on the same scale.
Hockey Alchemy's GAR model combines counting-stats components (EVO, EVD, PPO, SHD, Penalties) with a Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) overlay that isolates individual contributions from teammate and opponent effects. Each component is calibrated so the league-wide sum of GAR correlates strongly with actual goal differentials and standings points.
A replacement-level player is defined as the caliber of skater a team could acquire for minimal cost -- typically a waiver pickup or AHL call-up. The replacement baseline is set at roughly the 15th-20th percentile of NHL regulars. Elite skaters typically accumulate 15-25 GAR over a full season, while average NHLers sit around 3-8 GAR.
Formula
GAR = EVO + EVD + PPO + SHD + Penalties WAR = GAR / ~6 (varies by season goal environment)
Components
| Component | Description |
|---|---|
| EVO | Even-strength offensive value: goals and expected goals generated at 5v5. |
| EVD | Even-strength defensive value: goals and expected goals suppressed at 5v5. |
| PPO | Power-play offensive value: contribution on the man advantage. |
| SHD | Shorthanded defensive value: penalty-kill impact. |
| Penalties | Net value of penalties drawn (positive) minus penalties taken (negative). |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a good GAR in the NHL?
An average NHL regular produces roughly 3-8 GAR over a full season. Star players typically reach 12-18 GAR, and truly elite seasons (Hart Trophy caliber) can exceed 20 GAR. A replacement-level player, by definition, contributes 0 GAR.
How does GAR differ from WAR?
WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is simply GAR converted to wins. Because it takes roughly 5-7 goals to produce one additional win in the NHL standings, WAR = GAR divided by the season-specific goals-per-win factor. The two metrics rank players identically.
Does GAR account for goaltending?
Skater GAR does not include goaltending. Goalies have a separate GAR based on Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), which measures how many goals a goalie saves relative to the expected goal quality of shots faced.
Why might two GAR models disagree on a player?
Different models (Evolving Hockey, Hockey Alchemy, TopDownHockey) use different methodologies for isolating individual contributions -- especially for defense and shorthanded play. The defensive component is the most difficult to measure and the biggest source of disagreement between models.